The increased trend of global temperature in the recent decades has focused attention of the scientific community on the specific aspect of global climate and regional monsoon variability in a changing climate

Addressing this issue involves research and development of an Earth System Model (ESM), together with comprehensive assessment of various interactions among the different Earth System components viz., the atmosphere, ocean, biosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, It is necessary to strengthen and continue the basic research required for improving the Earth  System Model components.

a) Objectives:

1. To develop the high resolution climate models or Earth System Models (ESM) to address scientific questions on attribution and projection of regional climate change.
2. To use regional climate models to produce projections of Indian monsoon under different scenarios and assess the uncertainty in these projections.
3. To study Monsoon Variability and Predictability by identifying regional and global climate drivers for monsoon interannual variability and to identify useful predictors and to understand the dynamics of dry and wet epochs of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and their relation to the ENSO and other global coupled phenomenon.
4. To document chief features of regional monsoon climate change based on climate reconstructions derived from high resolution proxies and to understand the long-term monsoon climate variability over the Asian region.
5. To build in-house capacity in global and regional climate modeling to address all issues concerning the science of regional climate change with particular emphasis on the South Asian monsoon system.
6. To generate reliable climate inputs for impact assessments.
7. To develop hydrological model for large-scale estimation of run-off and soil moisture using satellite derived data.
8. To understand the role of aerosol loading over the Indian region in monsoon interannual variability and its possible implications on the Indian Monsoon.
9. To study and understand the role of aerosol chemistry (both organic and inorganic ionic species) in radiative forcing and regional climate change.

b) Participating Institutions:

Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune

c) Implementation Plan:

This is a continuing scheme. Following major activities would be continued to meet the objectives:

1. The existing tree-ring data network will be enhanced by developing tree-ring chronologies from different parts of the country as well as from other South and Southeast Asian countries.
2. To unravel the physical processes responsible for ‘internal variation of the monsoon system
3. To improve the understanding of monsoon system by studying various climate model systems and data-model comparison over the Asian monsoon region.
4. To generate high resolution (35 km grid size) simulations of the South Asian monsoon during the 20th century (1890-2005) and future climate (2005 – 2100) based on the AR5 scenario projections. The model outputs will be used for impact assessment studies (eg., impacts on climate, water resources, agriculture, health, etc)..
5. To understand the coupling processes and feedbacks among physical, chemical, radiative, dynamical and biological processes in the Earth’s environment and to carry out the comprehensive studies using climate modelling and observational techniques i.e. instruments and in-situ facilities acquired and put in function during the recent years.
6. The Earth System Model (ESM) will be fully developed, tested and implemented. Several long model runs will be performed using the ESM and CCCR will formally participate in the next Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP6) and contribute to IPCC AR6 assessment
7. To understand the radiative forcing from the chemical constituents by monitoring tropospheric vertical distribution and seasonal variability in black carbon and air pollutants over India with special reference to Indo-Gangetic plain and mountain regions.
8. To monitor and understand interactions among aerosols, cloud processes and large scale dynamics in organizing large scale cloud systems in the monsoon environment.
9. To upgrade the existing High Performance Computer system of the IITM with storage and necessary infrastructure.
10. Physical mechanism responsible for Indian monsoon variability on each time scale will be will be built up.
11. Monitoring of atmospheric GHG concentration over Indian stations to understand long-term variations in the GHG and understand the anthropogenic and natural processes affecting the GHG variation. Establish a network of GHG flux towers for long-term monitoring of GHG fluxes in different environments.

d) Deliverables:

1. An Earth System Model (ESM) which includes a realistic and comprehensive representation of all interactive processes occurring among the different components of the Earth System.The ESM would be rigorously tested and validated with regard to simulation of the global climate, the Indian and Asian monsoons, coupled climate phenomena like ENSO , IOD,  Pacific and Atlantic decadal variability, etc.
2. High resolution projections of future monsoon climate until 2100 for different climate scenarios. . This will be used for various impact assessment studies (eg., climate, water resources, agriculture, health, etc).
3. Generate knowledge base for detecting, understanding and attribution of observed climate changes to natural and human induced effects.
4. Generate human capacity in the country in the field of Earth System and Climate Modeling required for addressing all scientific issues concerning climate change.
5. Generate observations about GHG concentration variations over Indian region by in situ measurements
6. Generate observations of GHG fluxes over network of Indian stations and  identify the sources and sinks of GHG
7. Generate observations about cloud and aerosol interactions over Indian monsoon region through in situ measurements.
8. Generate proxies of past monsoon climatic variations through stable isotope analysis of climate proxies (e.g., tree rings, corals, speleotherms, etc).

e) Budget Requirement : 100 crores

(Rs. In crores)