The seasonal prediction of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is very important for our country, especially for planning strategies towards management of agricultural production and water resources. The seasonal prediction of the monsoon by dynamical models is based on the fact that the slowly varying boundary conditions like sea surface temperature (SST), soil moisture, snow cover, etc. exert significant influence on atmospheric development on seasonal time-scales in the tropics. Although the seasonal mean monsoon seems to be potentially predictable, atmospheric GCM simulations have not shown enough skill in capturing the inter-annual variations in the monsoon rainfall. Considerable research on predictability of the monsoon has established that the Indian Summer Monsoon has a limited potential predictability. It has also been recognized that ocean-atmosphere coupling is crucial in determining the potential predictability of the monsoon. Therefore, a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model will be required for predicting the monsoon.
Indian summer monsoon season has periods of active (above normal rainfall) and break (below normal rainfall) epochs. Frequent or prolonged breaks lead to drought conditions. The long breaks in critical growth periods of agricultural crops lead to substantially reduced yield. Poor rice production in India during 1972, 1979 and 1987 appear to be due to such long breaks. Prediction of monsoon active and break spells, two to three weeks in advance, therefore assumes great importance for agricultural planning (sowing, harvesting etc) and water management. So there is a need for development of techniques based on statistical and dynamical methods for the forecasting of active break periods in ensuing monsoon season in the extended range time scale. Prediction of monsoon intra-seasonal oscillation is a major research program at the international and national domain.
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune
This is a continuing scheme. Following major activities would be continued to meet the objectives:
(Rs. In crores)
|Name of the Scheme||2012-13||2013-14||2014-15||2015-16||2016-17||Total|
|Short Term Climate Prediction||55.00||45.00||35.00||34.00||31.00||200.00|
Last Updated On 04/07/2015 - 14:13