Upgradation of Forecast System (UFS)

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  • A Centre of Excellence to be developed by 2024 to address the needs of the NW Himalayan region, therefore, a major augmentation of the observational network in the region has been envisaged. As a part of the initiative, Supply order issued for 10 state-of the-art X-band DWRs to be installed in the region to improve the detection of heavy rainfall events over the hilly regions enhancing the nowcasts and warnings capability of severe weather events.
  • Noteworthy improvements made in track and intensity forecast of the tropical cyclones (24 hour forecast error in track prediction reduced from 141 km to 87.5km and Landfall error from 99 km to 44 km during 2006 to 2018). Accurate forecast of the recent cyclone Fani saved thousands of human lives.
  • Noticeable improvements achieved in skills of Heavy Rainfall Forecasts (Critical Success Index increased from 35% to 51%, Missing Rate reduced from 54% to 29% and Probability of Detection increased from 46% to 71% from 2002 to 2018).
  • Improvement in Heat wave warning skill up to 24, 48 & 72 hours in advance. Impact based heat wave warning based on NDMA guidelines have been started from summer 2019.
  • Significant improvement in fog warning with increased skill level over Gangetic plains during winter season. Large scale dense forecast predicted in 3-4 days advance and disseminated to various end users.
  • Increase in validity of forecasts from 2 days in 2006 to 10 days in 2019 and spatial resolution from meteorological subdivision to district level. Block-wise forecasts for 700 blocks have been introduced.
  • Quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) to Central Water Commission (CWC) for sub basin river flood warnings increased from 71 in 2006 to 153 in 2019. QPF issued for 2 days in 2006 increased to 3 days with subsequent outlook up to 4 days in 2015.
  • Developed Customized Rainfall Information System (CRIS) based on GIS platform which includes Preparation of operational real time rainfall maps, graphs and statistics.
  • 600 Tourists Sites from 21 States/UTs in coordination with State Authorities and other stake holders identified for developing tourism forecast application.
  • Provided new special forecast for Kumbh mela 2019
  • Customized weather forecasts for each of Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia (RIMES) member/collaborating countries based on a 3-km regional model.
  • Specialized services for optimum operation of activities like irrigation, shipping, offshore oil explorations were augmented. Specialized services were introduced for Power & health sectors.
  • 14 language editions of Rashtriya Panchang, The Indian Astronomical Ephemeris and Tables of Sunrise-Sunset and Moonrise-Moonset published and put on sale every year.
Last Updated On 09/18/2019 - 16:52
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